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Asian Development Bank: Reduce India's growth forecast from 7.0% to 6.5% in 2024 and from 7.2% to 7.0% in 2025.CITIC Securities: The logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in November, China's exports maintained a certain growth rate, exports to emerging markets maintained a high growth rate, and exports of mechanical and electrical products performed brilliantly. In the short term, both CCFI index and SCFI index are on the rise, and the logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. In the long run, if the United States imposes tariffs on China, China's export performance may be dragged down. However, based on the analysis of the import share structure of the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Mexico and other economies, we can see that the current pattern of China's trade diversification has improved compared with the last round of Sino-US trade friction, and the trade between emerging markets and China has become closer and closer. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on China may affect the bilateral trade between China and the United States more, and domestic enterprises going to sea and re-exporting trade may still be effective ways to hedge the impact of US tariffs on China.Vanke: It received a loan of 1.05 billion yuan from the Postal Savings Bank. On December 10th, Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd. (Vanke A, 000002.SZ) issued an announcement on providing guarantee for bank loans. According to the announcement, Vanke recently applied for a loan from Shenzhen Luohu Sub-branch of Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Postal Savings Bank"), with a total loan principal of RMB 1.05 billion, and subsequent companies will make withdrawals according to business needs. The holding subsidiaries of the Company provide corresponding mortgage and pledge guarantee for the relevant loans respectively, and at the same time, the holding subsidiaries, as co-borrower, undertake repayment obligations together with the Company. After this guarantee, the total external guarantee of the company and its holding subsidiaries will be 118.673 billion yuan, accounting for 4.732% of the company's audited net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies at the end of 2023.

ADB lowered the growth forecast of developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain China's economic growth forecast. On December 11th, the Asian Development Bank issued the Asia Development Outlook 2024 (December Edition). According to the report, the development momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is steady, but as US President-elect Trump is about to take office, changes in his trade, finance and immigration policies may inhibit the development of the Asia-Pacific region and aggravate inflation. ADB lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region from the previous 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, and from the previous 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. China's economic growth is expected to remain at 4.8% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, which is the same as before.Eight people were killed when the Israeli army attacked a house in the central part of Gaza, and eight people were killed and many others were injured when the Israeli army bombed a house in Nuseilet refugee camp in the central part of Gaza on the evening of 10th local time.Analyst: There may be a RRR cut of 50 basis points to 100 basis points next year. Tan Yiming, chief fixed income analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that there may be a RRR cut of 50 basis points to 100 basis points next year, considering the supply pressure of government bonds, the restoration of credit supply and the provision of long-term stable low-cost funds for financial institutions.

Citic Jiantou: The demand for promoting the release of opinions on the pipeline network and water renovation in resilient cities is expected to increase. According to the research report of CITIC Jiantou, recently, the general offices of the General Office of the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the Opinions on Promoting the Construction of New Urban Infrastructure to Create a Resilient City, which clearly stated that it is necessary to build an intelligent and efficient new urban infrastructure system and continuously improve the resilience of urban facilities, management and space. Specifically, the Opinions propose that by 2027, the construction of new urban infrastructure will make significant progress, and the supporting role for the construction of resilient cities will be continuously enhanced, forming a number of experiences and practices that can be replicated and promoted. In addition, the Opinions also proposes the implementation of intelligent municipal infrastructure construction and transformation, and the digital transformation and upgrading and intelligent management of urban water supply, drainage, power supply, gas, heat, fire hydrants (fire cranes), underground utility tunnel and other municipal infrastructure according to local conditions. We believe that in the process of building a resilient city, the demand for urban infrastructure renewal and construction is expected to continue to grow, and related water and sanitation equipment enterprises are expected to benefit.Huatai Securities: The policy overweight boosts consumption and is optimistic about the four main lines. Huatai Securities Research Report said that with the continuous efforts of promoting consumption policies, the large consumer sector ushered in the configuration window period and continued to be optimistic about the basic orientation and valuation repair of the consumer sector. It is suggested to pay attention to four main investment lines: 1) the rise of domestic products: the strength and brand power of domestic products in beauty care, home appliances, pets, textiles and clothing are constantly improving, occupying consumers' minds against the trend, and domestic products continue to lead; 2) Emotional consumption: the products on the supply side are continuously iterated, and the goods/services are built as a medium to convey emotional value, and the consumption on the demand side is superimposed to promote the continuous expansion of the tide play /IP economy; 3) New cost performance: The consumption concept of residents is becoming more and more rational, and the quality-price ratio has become the core of consumption decision-making. The new cost performance consumption focusing on "good but not expensive" is expected to continue to grow rapidly; 4) Consumption going to sea: Going to sea has become a necessary topic for consumer enterprises. Under the two-way catalysis of supply and demand, China enterprises are actively participating in global market competition and paying attention to brand/culture/service going to sea.Xie Yunliang, macro chief analyst of Cinda Securities, said that historically, the establishment of a "moderately loose" policy orientation needs to meet two major conditions, namely, the domestic pressure to stabilize prices is high and the foreign Federal Reserve is in a loose cycle. At present, it is judged that both situations may exist next year.